Intelligence community: U.S. out as sole superpower by 2030


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2030.  All I wanna know is:  Is that Easter Standard Time or Greenwich Mean Time?

With current trend lines, an anti-capitalist bent in our own gummint, and a strategic Pacific “pivot” for which we currently have barely enough Naval assets to execute even in peacetime, I would say 2030 is damned optimistic.  Economic and military power is withering daily before our eyes, and Politico tells us that the ODNI seems somewhat resigned to our decline.  No nation would surpass us if we were not on the way down.  With China stating openly their goal of supplanting the United States as the preeminent power on the globe, the rather strangely optimistic quote from ODNI is puzzling:

“The U.S. most likely will remain ‘first among equals’ among the other great powers, due to the legacy of its leadership role in the world and the dominant role it has played in international politics across the board in both hard and soft power,”

“The replacement of the United States by another global power and erection of a new international order seems the least likely outcome in this time period,” the report projects.

With a major military and economic rival working toward just such an eventuality, and we doing virtually nothing to prevent it,  one should at minimum not dismiss the possibility as “least likely”.  That smacks of hope as a course of action.  The idea of “legacy” of leadership will be worth not a thing if we do not ensure our place as a leader in the world’s international affairs.  We have done anything but, consciously, beginning with Libya.

The US Navy will be well under 200 ships, IMHO, by 2030.  While the Navy will retain some good deal of striking power in a major sea battle, the shrinking numbers will mean a contraction of US presence worldwide.   We will learn again that the Navy that provides forward presence is built, to an extent, on the numbers which were so airily dismissed during the debates.  No, this isn’t “Battleship”.    That is a game for children.  This is the chess match of international affairs.  Which is a game for serious and professional diplomats and statesmen.  Of which there is a notable dearth among the current cast.

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6 Comments

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6 responses to “Intelligence community: U.S. out as sole superpower by 2030

  1. scottthebadger

    To think that at one time we had 148 carriers alone, if you count CVs, CVLs, and CVEs, and we bought FLETCHERs 175 at a time. We will soon no longer have any power projection capability, but that is OK, the CHICOMs will.
    We will no longer be taken seriously, and why should we, if we are unable, or unwilling to back up our beliefs and needs by force, if needed.

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    • The ChiComs are still a loooong way from being more than a regional naval power. When they can regularly dispatch task forces on 6-9 month deployments to the Med and LANT, then they’ll have parity.

      They are, however, rapidly becoming a very capable regional power, in naval terms. And that is the result of a very conscious national policy decision. Worse yet, for the foreseeable future, they don’t need to come close to us in parity. For their purposes, they need only to either achieve local superiority in combat power, or even merely deny us access to the region to achieve their goals. I don’t think either they nor we are itching for a shooting war, but their national military strategy since 1991 has been geared toward offsetting the great advantages our power projection and technology has given us.

      It’s not time to panic, but the time for resting on our laurels is surely over. But with our economy the way it is, our Navy will surely get worse before it gets better.

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  2. ultimaratioregis

    Sorry, humble host. But China achieves parity when we CANNOT dispatch task forces regularly to the MED. Same, same, WESTPAC. They gain the ability to match us, even near-peer there, then yes, they will have parity. And will be trending up. While we are trending down.

    Nobody should panic. Nor, however, should we shrug at the inevitability of our decline when it is our own lack of will, economic self-immolation, and ill-formed amateurish understanding of statesmanship that causes that decline.

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  3. ultimaratioregis

    QM,

    Don’t I at least get a well-publicized show-trial?

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  4. Population of whites said to be well decreased by 2060 perhaps even bred out of existence making the black, brown and Asian people the heirs to this mess.
    So by the time the Chinese come calling it will be attacking a preferential and protected racial group of Americans or Aztlan’s as the case may be the UN will step in and declare the Chinese racists and conservative and will send them a severe talking points email.
    I would imagine all the surviving whites will self deport to somewhere.

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